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Prediction for CME (2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-10T23:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29134/-1
CME Note: Partial halo shock to the north with bulk portion to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and following a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M9.0 flare from AR13576 starting at 2024-02-10T22:56Z with clear deflection NW seen as dimming and EUV wave in SDO/AIA 193, 211, 304, and 171. There is also filament ejecta seen during and following the eruption in SDO/AIA 304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T01:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T16:46Z (-4.99h, +5.78h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/02/10 23:25Z
Plane of Sky 1: 07:00Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 10:50Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction
POS Difference: 3:50
POS Midpoint: 08:55Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:30

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.88
Travel Time: ~6.88 * 9:30 = 65:21

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-02-13T16:46Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 5%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5

Lead Time: 41.70 hour(s)
Difference: -15.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-02-11T07:56Z

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